Affordable Housing

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http://www.batonrougefhaappraisers.com/ – How To Understand Baton Rouge Home Appraisals: Market Conditions Section. The challenges local home appraisers now face when valuing Greater Baton Rouge homes after the Federal Tax Credit Expiration.

I recently completed a refinance appraisal assignment off Sharp Rd and witnessed a trend I wanted to bring your attention to. This is still the recovering Post Hurricane Gustav market of MLS Area 42, zip code 70815, generally Broadmoor and Sherwood Forest areas. I say Post Hurricane Gustav because Gustav’s damage in 9/2008 disrupted this housing market more than most realize. I believe the 2 weeks it took to restore utilities had a psychological impact on this market as home sales prices dipped, see chart below. Chart represents home sales from $100K to $300K in 70815 from 1/1/2007 to present.

mls area 42 baton rouge number of home sales post hurricane gustav

As a home appraiser appraising in any local market that is now NOT always increasing every year as in prior years, it’s now crucial to know where the market has been, where it is now and where it might be in the future.

Cautions On Interpreting Market Data Post Federal Tax Credit Expiration. This post below illustrates that just because the Federal Tax Credit artificially elevated home sales and possibly home prices, doesn’t indicate an always favorable appraised value for your home. The word favorable is a favorable value in the home owner’s mind, not necessarily market reality. The areas listings inventories or homes for sale, has been building or increasing for months now while at the same time home sales have been slowing. This could be attributable to the national economy finally catching up with the local economy, more difficulty now in qualifying for a mortgage and/or the shift within the Greater Baton Rouge housing market toward more affordable housing, ie., closer to $100/sf versus $135/sf to $160/sf.

baton rouge appraisal assignment

 

baton rouge home appraisalsAppraisal Assignment: 38 year old 2,850sf living area home, 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Baths, off Sharp Rd in between Broadmoor and Sherwood Forest areas.

 

mls area 42 baton rouge

MLS Search Parameters

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3 to 5 Bedroom Slab Homes in Area 42 Between $150,000 to $275,000, Zip Code 70815, 10/4/2008 to 10/7/2010, Ages 16-20 to Max Age.

 

Sold Results: Median Sales Prices!

Sold results indicate an increasing median sales price since 10/4/2008 of +11% and +7.5% over the past year.

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Sold Results: Average Sold Price Per Sq. Ft.!

Sold results indicate an increasing average sold price per sq. ft. since 10/4/2008. In Broadmoor, the increase has been $4/sf or +5.3%. In Sherwood Forest, the increase has been $2/sf or +2.7%.

mls area 42 sold price stats

broadmoor area scatter chart baton rouge

 

baton rouge appraisal assignment market conditions

 

HOWEVER, The current market conditions, the Fannie Mae 1004MC or Market Conditions Form describes a different market condition THAT MUST BE ANALYZED AND RECONCILED BY THE APPRAISER.

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COMPETING HOME SALES ARE DECLINING – From 18 to 3!

ABSORPTION RATE IS DECLINING – From 3 Sales Per Month Down To Just 1!

TOTAL COMPARABLE ACTIVE LISTINGS IS INCREASING – Inventory Is Growing!

MONTHS OF HOUSING SUPPLY IS INCREASING – FROM 5 TO 22!

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NOTE: When the top right 4 boxes are checked for Declining, Declining, Increasing and Increasing, that’s not a good market indication!

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Chart Showing Slowing Home Sales!

mls area 42 baton rouge number of home sales declines

 

Conclusion.

When appraising local Greater Baton Rouge Homes, it’s important for both the appraiser and the homeowner to know that ALL market conditions are examined and reconciled to arrive at a value conclusion. In the above market examination, YES, the median sales prices and average sales prices per sq. ft. were increasing, but were also still recovering. If one examines the very first chart in this post, you’ll find that this market still hasn’t fully recovered to the $180K median sales prices of 2007/2008 prior to Gustav. baton rouge market conditions

And, it’s very important to lenders underwriting the loan if there’s only 1 competing home per month selling resulting in a 22 month supply of competing housing, declining absorption rate (declining number of homes within the large inventory being removed from that inventory), increasing number of months on the market and increasing number of listings being added each month.

I do hope locals can now better understand part of the appraisal process. Home appraisals in 2010, with the newer 1004MC form and more and more requirements being added each month it seems, take much longer to complete now with much more investigation and reporting requirements.

REO OR FORECLOSURE RATE!

And, for those that would like to know to know the REO or Foreclosure rate for this assignment, the chart is below showing only 2 “MLS” foreclosures for homes 2500sf to 3100sf since 10/4/2008. There could have been several more take place outside of these 2 listed in MLS as many national lenders today choose not to list their REO inventories in the MLS anymore….up to 70%. In my report, I stated, ” It’s also stated here that a recent article (The Landmines Within by Michael Tarabotto http://activerain.com/blogsview/930436/The-Landmines-Within ) stated that as much as 70% of REOs never make it into the MLS – Meaning that it might be impossible to know or state the exact # of competing REOs if
they’re not being listed. MLS is reporting 2 comparable REO listings.”

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Bill Cobb Accurate Valuations Group Large Background 2

Data used with permission of the GBRAR MLS, search dates 1/1/2007 to 10/07/2010, extracted on 10/07/2010.

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http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ - Western Livingston Parish Home Appraisers: August 2010 Market Data

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The August 2010 housing numbers are in from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors from 8/1/2010 to 8/31/2010 and from 8/1/2009 to 8/31/2010, extracted on 9/16/2010.

 

Livingston Parish August 2010 Market Data
(For MLS Areas 80, 81, 82 & 83)

Total Monthly Sales: 56 (Lowest Number Of Sales In Period)

Average Listing Price: $164,295 ($162,914 in 8/2009)
Average Sold Price: $161,018 ($160,232 in 8/2009)
Median Sold Price: $140,900 ($152,500 in 8/2009)
Average Days On The Market: 92 (85 in 8/2009)
Listing To Sales Price Ratio: 98% (98.3% in 8/2009)
Current Inventory: 811 (703 in 8/2009)
Months of Inventory: 14.5 (Longest In Period, 5.9 in 8/2009)

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Annual View From 8/2009 to 8/2010:

Total Monthly Sales: 1210

Average Listing Price: $167,849
Average Sold Price: $164,948
Median Sold Price: $152,147
Average Days On The Market: 90
Listing To Sales Price Ratio: 98.3%
Average Current Inventory: 719
Average Months of Inventory: 7.1

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Accurate Valuations Group’s “MARKET WRAP”:

NUMBER OF HOME SALES DECLINES. Based on these numbers, home sales are slowing considerably from 120 in August 2009, 109 in June 2010, 83 in July 2010 to just 56 in August 2010, a decline of -53% since August 2009.

LOCAL HOUSING INVENTORY SWELLS. With the number of home sales declining, this resulted in an increase to over 14 months of inventory. The good news is that in August, it still took an average days on the market of 92 days to sell a home.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE DECLINE. The median sales price declined sharply from $152,500 in August 2009, $149,000 in June 2010, $155,000 in July 2010 to just $140,900 in August 2010, a decline of -7.6% since August 2009. This shows that this market continues to favor the more affordable housing options over that of the higher end homes market. Area home builders have reacted and are building smaller homes to accomodate this market demand.

WHY WE USE MEDIAN SALES PRICE OVER AVERAGE SALES PRICE? NOTE: Why Median Sales Price is a better indicator than Average Sales Price! Median Sales Price is the barometer by which the National Association of Realtors uses to report on national housing markets. Average Sales Price tends to take all of the home sales prices from the lowest, say $50,000, to the highest, say $1,000,000, and state the average of them all, sometimes skewing the numbers because of the extreme highs and lows. Median Sales Price tends to focus more on the middle of where the bulk of home sales prices are taking place. Generally, the Average Sales Price is going to be higher because it includes the extreme high sales prices in a given market.

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http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ – Crystal Lakes Denham Springs: An Appraiser’s Perspective

crystal lakes denham springs site

Bill Cobb Home Appraiser Baton Rouge LaDenham Springs resident and home appraiser, Bill Cobb, offers comments and advice on the holding pattern that Crystal Lakes has been in since this development began in approximately 2007.

I’ve watched Crystal Lakes for years now as my family and I have visited North Park and as I’ve driven down Burgess Road on my way to appraisal appointments. I knew why those first 5 and only homes weren’t selling and it had everything to do with “PRICE” in this Livingston Parish market. Let me say here and now that I believe Crystal Lakes will be a very nice development for the residents of Denham Springs when it’s more aligned with the overall pricing and quality that local residents can afford, which includes the $600/yr HOA Fee.

crystal lakes planned community denham springs

The developer is Spatz Development out of Chicago. I was told back in 2006 by Livingston Parish Builder, Dennis Calmes, that Spatz Development first went to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and told the City that they’d like to help with the reconstruction of new homes. It was told to me that NOLA basically told Spatz that it would take at least a year or two before he could obtain his permits to build. So, Spatz Development bought the land for Crystal Lakes where it was much easier to do business. Spatz Development was trying to accomplish a positive thing for the local community. But, like other local developers in the past 4 years, Spatz Development overshot the anticipated price these homes would eventually sell for in a market that turned to more affordable housing options – a market where $136/sf+ for new home construction isn’t and wasn’t at all sustainable. Maybe in California where incomes are higher, but not in Livingston Parish Louisiana and not in other parts of Greater Baton Rouge either.

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I recently appraised one of the 5 homes on Adora Ave in Crystal Lakes for a sale….approximately 3 years after this home was built. Why? One local Realtor I spoke with for this report said it had to do with “PRICE”. They stated that the developer built the 5 homes in 2007 and then tried to sell them by builder for something like $145/sf. The Realtor Active Rain Network shows a blog post back to 2/5/2008, Denham Springs Crystal Lake Development Is On Fire!, but according to MLS, it wasn’t until early 2009 when these homes were finally listed in MLS.

Trying To Be Too Much? YES! According to the Realtor I spoke with and MLS, the 5 homes range in living area size from 1,528sf all the way up to 3,125sf living area. That’s too wide a variance when the listing prices ranged from $189,900 to $435,000 on the same street, within 5 lots of one another. ADVICE: Build homes closer in living area size and closer in pricing!

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Too High Of Quality? YES! Oh Yes, these are high quality homes, quality you might see in the garden homes section of Greystone Golf where residents pay $150/sf+. Was building this high of quality in this Denham Springs market a mistake? Obviously since it’s taken 3 to 3.5 years to sell just 2 of these 5 homes, it was a mistake. NOTE: 2 of the 5 homes are currently pending. ADVICE: Lower The Quality Some To Lower The Price To Make These Homes More Affordable!

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It’s Very Easy To Build Too High Of Quality Homes For Denham Springs Market! As I said about Juban Parc and other developments in Western Livingston Parish, this market is 80% affordable type housing served by DR Horton and PCC/Vicknair Builders. What’s selling in bulk now in Livingston Parish in terms of new homes is in the $135,000 to $150,000 range. This was all explained in the recent Baton Rouge Business Report article, The Real Estate Mogul Of Livingston Parish and I don’t refute the findings in that article. Mr. Thomason is building and providing housing that people can actually afford. He’s meeting a need that builders that expect $130/sf to $150/sf for their homes are not meeting. He’s a smart man that builds homes based on the incomes of the local residents and knows what they can afford as opposed to the builders that think they’re entitled to $136 + per sq. ft..

Mr. Thomason is so confident that he can continue to meet that need better than other builders that he purchased $10,000,000 in lots in 2009 in Ascension Parish. And, Mr. Thomason is selling homes in bulk while other local builders aren’t doing nearly as well as in the insane local housing markets of late 2005 to early 2008, with builders expecting $136/sf+ for their homes. That was then and this is the much more sane 2010s. $128/sf+ in Livingston Parish generally doesn’t work as some builders AND THEIR BANKS have found out the hard way. The residents that bought those higher quality homes in Juban Parc early on are learning this lesson the hard way as well.

Other Homes In Crystal Lakes!

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MY ULTIMATE ADVICE! According to the Realtor I spoke with representing Crystal Lakes, the plan is to make the homes both smaller and similar in size. My advice would be to make this development similar to the home size and quality found in Willow Pointe S/D off Hatchell Lane, where the homes range in size from 1500sf to 1800sf and in pricing from $170K to $214K. In this appraiser’s opinion, Crystal Lakes would be more desirable of a development than Willow Pointe because of the older section of Kemberly Heights one has to drive through to get to Willow Pointe and that onerous left turn onto Hatchell Lane in the mornings. However, Willow Pointe is closer to Florida and closer to Interstate 12, which makes a big difference when there are no plans in action whatsover to make the commute from Crystal Lakes to Florida Blvd or Interstate 12 less grueling. That 2 mile difference in the mornings and evenings can seem like an eternity in the worsening traffic of Denham Springs. Traffic in Denham Springs is a complete nightmare and it doesn’t appear that much of anything is being done to to help us wake up from this daily nightmare. Why is Hatchell Lane still a 2 Lane road in 2010? I better quit now!

9130 WILLOW POINTE DR

ACCURATE VALUATIONS LOGO BorderBill Cobb, with Accurate Valuations Group, is and has been a local home appraiser for 18 years now.

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http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ – Denham Springs Housing Update April 2010 – Reporting Declining Prices and Move To Affordability!

denham springs real estate april 2010 update

denham springs homes update 2010

This Denham Springs Housing Update proves what I’ve been saying for the past year – that the Denham Springs housing market is turning more affordable, to lower priced housing. The chart below shows the largest percentage of homes sold in Denham Springs in the $130,000 to $139,999 range. According to the Baton Rouge Business Report Weekly below, the March 2009 average sales price was $165,404 and $154,782 in March 2010, -6.42% decline.

Denham Springs Summary 2 4 1 2009 to 4 13 2010

 

br businessreportYesterday’s Baton Rouge Business Report Weekly Real Estate Update for March 2010 stated:

For the first time this year, more houses were sold locally in a month than were sold the year before. There were 596 homes sold in March, according to figures from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, compared with 594 MLS sales in March 2009. The average sale price also increased slightly, from $194,321 in March 2009 to $197,042. The gain was entirely driven by Ascension Parish, where there were 142 MLS sales in March, compared with 105 in March 2009. Average sale prices were down somewhat in Ascension, from $213,600 to $201,082. Sale prices were also down in Livingston Parish, where there were 91 sales, three fewer than in March 2009. The average sale price in the parish was $154,782, compared with $165,404 in March 2009. East Baton Rouge sales were down from 351 to 320, while the average sale price rose from $202,975 to $206,061. And in the other category, which includes MLS sales in the Felicianas, West Baton Rouge and Pointe Coupee parishes, the average sale price jumped up to $206,020, from $141,057, while the number of sales was virtually unchanged, from 44 in March 2009 to 43 last month.

Through the first quarter of 2010, 1,402 MLS sales have happened in the Capital Region, 2% less than the 1,431 sales in the first three months of 2009. The average sale price is $192,709, down slightly from the $193,216 figure in the first quarter 2009.

 

 

 

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